Bitcoin Storm Could Be Brewing: Derive Predicts Major Crypto Volatility Ahead

 The crypto market’s recent calm may be the calm before the storm. According to Derive, a leading decentralized crypto on-chain options platform, Bitcoin (BTC) could soon experience significant price volatility. Several factors, including geopolitical tensions, regulatory shifts, and Federal Reserve decisions, could trigger this turbulence.

              What’s Behind Bitcoin’s Current Calm?  

Since March 12, Bitcoin has been trading in the 

$80K-$85K range, a consolidation phase following its recent drop from $100K. This decline was driven by factors such as President Trump’s tariffs and disappointment over the lack of new purchases in the U.S. strategic BTC reserve.

However, this calm may not last long. Volatility metrics are nearing monthly lows, but as Derive points out, volatility is mean-reverting. This means the current low-volatility regime could soon give way to significant price swings.

                                      Key Factors That Could Trigger Volatility

Several developments could spark a storm in the crypto market:

1.Geopolitical Tensions in Ukraine

1. A ceasefire (or lack thereof) in Ukraine could impact global markets, including crypto. Geopolitical uncertainty often drives investors toward or away from riskier assets like Bitcoin.

2. 
   2.Shifts in Crypto Regulatory Policy

3. Changes in crypto regulations under the Trump administration could create uncertainty, leading to increased market volatility.

4. 3.Federal Reserve Rate Decisions

   The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision could significantly impact markets. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, any dovish surprise could reignite bullish momentum.

                Volatility Metrics Suggest a Storm is Coming

Derive’s data shows that Bitcoin’s weekly at-the-money (ATM) volatility has dipped below 50%, approaching monthly lows. Similarly, realized volatility has dropped from 91% at the start of the month to 54% today.

As Nick Forster, founder of Derive, explains, “Volatility is mean-reverting, so we can expect it to rise soon, likely to levels seen in February (60-70%).”

                           What Does This Mean for Bitcoin Prices?

It’s important to note that volatility is price-agnostic. This means that while volatility is expected to increase, it doesn’t indicate whether prices will rise or fall. Bitcoin could experience significant swings in either direction.

                        Derive: Leading the On-Chain Options Market

Derive is the world’s leading on-chain AI-powered options protocol, with a total value locked (TVL) of nearly $100million\ast \ast andacumulativetradingvolumeof\ast \ast$15 billion. The platform provides valuable insights into market trends and volatility, making it a key player in the crypto space.

                        Conclusion: Prepare for Potential Price Swings

The crypto market’s current calm may soon be disrupted by significant volatility. Whether prices rise or fall, investors should prepare for potential turbulence driven by geopolitical events, regulatory changes, and Federal Reserve decisions.

Stay informed and keep an eye on key metrics to navigate the upcoming storm.